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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecession probability been rising in recent months, says Abby Joseph CohenAbby Joseph Cohen, former Goldman Sachs chief U.S. strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss where investors currently are, how Joseph Cohen would forecast the next year, and much more.
Persons: Abby Joseph Cohen Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs, Joseph Cohen
David Rosenberg warned the buzz around stocks today is similar to the mania before past crashes. The economist noted that American consumers are running short of cash and struggling to borrow more. The veteran economist and Rosenberg Research president also rang the alarm on the US economy in a research note on Wednesday. "The balloon does have a lot of hot air in it," Rosenberg noted, suggesting it was hard to say when speculation and emotion would cease trumping fundamentals and rational thought. That has raised borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, and wreaked havoc on debt-fueled industries such as commercial real estate.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Irving Fisher, Abby Joseph Cohen, Chuck Prince's doozy, you've, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, North, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Big Tech, Consumers, New York, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon, North American
Despite this clear warning, Wall Street is still delusionally optimistic about how the stock market will perform in 2023. According to Bloomberg, Wall Street analysts expect S&P 500 companies' earnings per share to hit $229 in 2023 — a steady increase from their initial 2023 estimate of $211 at the start of this year. Pretend it's the end of 2019 — not a terrible time for the stock market and the US economy. Even if corporate profits sink back down to that healthy level, it's still a long way down from where the stock market sits right now. All the visuals you've seen of a screaming-red stock market and sweaty traders doing the sign of the cross — those are just the beginning.
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